We Hit Taylor And CMC And Swift Still Killed The Ticket

I don't want us running a sports site where we only post the bets that won and act like the losses never happened. Jonathan Taylor was one of our Week 4 touchdown reads and he scored twice against Washington. Christian McCaffrey was another and he got in from the one against Denver. That's two where we liked the role and got exactly the result we were hoping for. Then Chicago happens. I put one ticket in all weekend, and the only leg that died was D'Andre Swift to score. Of course it was. 😂 The Bears ran the ball all day, Kyle Monangai carried it 30 times for 146 yards and got both rushing touchdowns, and Swift had 15 carries for 58 yards without scoring. If you told me before kickoff the Bears would control that game with the ground attack, I'd probably love the setup. We weren't wrong about the Bears wanting to run. We were wrong about which running back would finish the drives. That's a much more useful thing to admit than acting like the whole matchup was trash.

6IX TAKE

A ticket that hits Taylor and McCaffrey but misses Swift still loses. Monangai's 30 carries and two scores show why a correct team-level rushing read can be the wrong player-level touchdown pick.

Right game script. Wrong motherfucker.6IX / THE TICKET

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Chicago's 23–12 win over the Jets is a perfect example of why a touchdown bet can be right about the game and wrong about the player. The Bears ran 89 offensive plays and Kyle Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards with two rushing touchdowns. D'Andre Swift had 15 carries for 58 yards and did not score. If the pregame argument was simply that Chicago would control the ball and create rushing opportunities, the broad picture was correct. The ticket still lost because those opportunities belonged to somebody else at the goal line. Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey scored on the same weekend, which makes the missed Swift leg even more frustrating. But the honest postgame analysis is not to complain about bad luck and move on. We should look at who was getting carries near the goal line, which back the coaches trusted in scoring situations, and whether the projected role was actually supported by the evidence available before kickoff. A running back can have a solid game and still never be the player finishing the drive. That is the standard I want for the betting notebook. Keep the winning reads, keep the losing reads, and do not invent model probabilities after the game to make the process look smarter than it was. We can record the final statistics now. To evaluate the actual pregame prediction, we need the original ticket, price, injury report, and role assumptions saved alongside it. Otherwise hindsight does all the talking. Swift was the wrong touchdown leg, and pretending otherwise would make the next bet worse, not better.